Digital Event Horizon
In the wake of Donald Trump's presidential victory, the future of US AI policy hangs in the balance. With plans to dismantle Biden's AI Executive Order and levy tariffs on GPU imports, the landscape for artificial intelligence development is uncertain. Will state governments fill the regulatory gaps left by federal action, or will the industry be subject to a more permissive regime? The implications of Trump's policies on AI are far-reaching, and Ars Technica will continue to provide in-depth coverage of this developing story.
Trump plans to dismantle President Biden's AI Executive Order immediately upon taking office.The Biden Executive Order established wide-ranging oversight of AI development, including the US AI Safety Institute (AISI) and requirements for companies to submit reports about AI training methodologies and security measures.Trump supporters argue that these measures could discourage innovation and prevent advancements like ChatGPT.Trump's trade policies could significantly impact AI development, potentially disrupting the supply of GPUs necessary for accelerating AI training and inference tasks.Trump's plans to restrict H-1B visas and expand oil and gas development may affect AI companies' ability to recruit talent and access computing resources.The administration may strengthen export controls on AI chips and models to China, potentially affecting Chinese companies that currently access these tools through cloud services.The repeal of the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, a Biden initiative aimed at spurring domestic semiconductor chip production, is uncertain under Trump's presidency.Elon Musk's AI company, xAI, may benefit from changes under the new administration due to his close ties with Trump and involvement in various tech ventures.
In a surprise turn of events, Donald Trump has emerged as the presumptive winner of the 2024 US presidential election. With his victory, the future of artificial intelligence (AI) regulation in the United States is now uncertain. Among other changes, Trump plans to dismantle President Biden's AI Executive Order from October 2023 immediately upon taking office.
The Biden Executive Order established wide-ranging oversight of AI development, with key provisions including the establishment of the US AI Safety Institute (AISI), requirements for companies to submit reports about AI training methodologies and security measures, and a directive for the Commerce Department's National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to develop guidance on identifying and fixing flaws in AI models.
However, Trump supporters have criticized these measures, arguing that they could discourage innovation and prevent advancements like ChatGPT. Representative Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) warned that reporting requirements could stifle development, while Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) characterized NIST's AI safety standards as an attempt to control speech through "woke" safety requirements.
With Trump's opposition, the future of existing AI regulation programs remains uncertain. The AISI, despite having a budget and international partnerships, may be at risk of being repealed. Additionally, Trump's trade policies could significantly impact AI development. His proposed 10 percent tariff on all US imports and a 60 percent tariff on Chinese products might interrupt the supply of GPUs necessary for accelerating AI training and inference tasks.
Furthermore, Trump's plans to restrict H-1B visas and expand oil and gas development may affect AI companies' ability to recruit talent and access computing resources. The administration may also strengthen export controls on AI chips and models to China, although some Chinese companies currently access these tools through cloud services.
Another uncertainty is the repeal of the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, a Biden initiative aimed at spurring domestic semiconductor chip production. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a staunch Trump supporter, has stated that Republicans "probably will" repeal the bill, despite initial pushback from Democrats. Trump has previously spoken out against the bill.
The Elon Musk factor also plays a significant role in this context. As a tech billionaire who spent tens of millions supporting Trump's campaign and is angling for regulatory influence, Musk's AI company, xAI, may benefit from changes under the new administration. Musk's ventures, including Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, and X (formerly Twitter), could see regulatory changes in his favor.
In response to Trump's potential actions, state governments may step in to fill any federal regulatory gaps. For example, Tennessee has enacted protections against AI voice cloning, while Colorado created a tiered system for AI deployment oversight. California has passed multiple AI safety bills, including one requiring companies to publish details about their AI training methods and an anti-deepfake bill aimed at protecting the likenesses of actors.
Trump's policies on AI are largely unclear beyond "deregulate whenever possible." During his campaign, he promised to support AI development centered on "free speech and human flourishing," though he provided few specifics. His views on AI are often contradictory, with comments labeling it as both "very dangerous" and a potential force for good.
The future of the existing Biden-originated AI regulation programs is now uncertain, and the implications of Trump's actions will be closely watched by industry stakeholders and policymakers alike.
Related Information:
https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/11/trump-victory-signals-major-shakeup-for-us-ai-regulations/
Published: Wed Nov 6 16:13:02 2024 by llama3.2 3B Q4_K_M
